Teddy Bridgewater, Kirk Cousins, Courtland Sutton – The Denver Post

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Part of running a fantasy football team is the dilemma of leaving or leaving.

Having the foresight to start the wide receiver going for 100 yards and a touchdown in a game while sitting a wide receiver against a set-back cornerback is one of the keys to victory.

For this version of start-or-sit, I’m going to list all the relevant fantasy football players each week and place them into levels.

And to take some of the guesswork out of it, I’ll be using thousands of slate simulations based on numberFire’s player projections with dynamic measures of variance, such as quarterback rush, receiving back, and depth. of the receiver target.

The results will come down to three levels: players that we need to be sure to start with, players that we can consider starting whenever we don’t have better alternatives, but who are not go-to players and players. that we should try to bench whenever we have it. better alternatives.

These players are listed in order of how often they hit the stated threshold (i.e. QB12, RB24, WR24, and TE12 performance and higher on the list means more booting).

The groupings reflect a 12-team league and a quarterback with the following assumption in mind: if I had other viable options on my bench or on the hanger, should I start this player this week? ?

Unlisted players should be presumed worthy to sit in a shallow or standard-sized league, and all fantastic point references and rankings reflect a half-PPR score.

QUARTERS

Start with Confidence
These players have at least a 50% chance of finishing the week as a top 12 quarterback, according to the simulations on the slate.

  • Patrick Mahomes at PHI (71%)
  • Josh Allen vs. HOU (69%)
  • Lamar Jackson at DEN (55%)
  • Dak Prescott vs. CAR (55%)
  • Jalen Hurts vs. KC (55%)
  • Matthew Stafford vs. ARI (54%)
  • Kyler Murray in Los Angeles (54%)
  • Justin Herbert vs. LV (53%)
  • Tom Brady in NE (50%)
  • Russell Wilson at SF (50%)

Consider if necessary
This level has a 35% to 49% chance of posting a top 12 week.

  • Derek Carr at LAC (42%)
  • Kirk Cousins ​​vs. CLE (40%)
  • Joe Burrow vs. JAC (40%)
  • Aaron Rodgers vs. PIT (40%)
  • Baker Mayfield at MIN (39%)
  • Ryan Tannehill in NYJ (39%)
  • Taylor Heinicke at ATL (36%)

Kirk Cousins ​​plays a Cleveland Browns team that is only 16th in drop-back adjusted fantasy points versus quarterbacks and plays in a dome, which is more conducive to big games. Since 2018, couriers have reached the 300-meter mark 32% of the time when playing indoors, compared to 24% when playing outdoors.

Baker Mayfield is playing the other side of this game, and he’s on a good enough start for the game and the playing environment he will have against the Minnesota Vikings.

Bench if possible
These quarterbacks are less than 35% (17th or worse) likely to score in the top 12 and are unlikely to be in the quarterback conversation.

  • Matt Ryan vs. WSH (32%)
  • Sam Darnold at DAL (31%)
  • Teddy Bridgewater vs. BAL (30%)
  • Trevor Lawrence at CIN (30%)
  • Daniel Jones at NO (26%)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo vs. SEA (25%)
  • Mac Jones vs. TB (25%)
  • Jacoby Brissett vs. IND (25%)
  • Zach Wilson vs. TEN (23%)
  • Jared Goff at CHI (23%)
  • Jameis Winston vs. NYG (22%)
  • Ben Roethlisberger at GB (21%)
  • Carson Wentz at MIA (21%)
  • Davis Mills at BUF (17%)

TO RECOVER

Start with confidence
These running backs have at least a 60% chance of finishing the week in the top 24, according to the simulations on the slate. You start them.

  • Derrick Henry in NYJ (83%)
  • Alvin Kamara vs. NYG (78%)
  • Joe Mixon vs. JAC (73%)
  • Aaron Jones vs. PIT (71%)
  • Najee Harris at GB (71%)
  • David Montgomery vs. DET (70%)
  • Ezekiel Elliott vs. CAR (70%)
  • Austin Ekeler vs. LV (69%)
  • From André Swift at CHI (66%)
  • Nick Chubb at MIN (65%)
  • Antonio Gibson at ATL (64%)
  • Chuba Hubbard at DAL (63%)
  • Saquon Barkley at NO (61%)
  • Jonathan Taylor at MIA (60%)

Consider if necessary
This level is somewhere between 40% and 59% for an RB2 week, and you are probably starting some of them even if they are shy of this higher level.

  • Chris Carson in SF (58%)
  • James Robinson at CIN (57%)
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire at PHI (56%)
  • Myles Gaskin vs. IND (52%)
  • Miles Sanders vs. KC (51%)
  • Mike Davis vs. WSH (48%)
  • Léonard Fournette in the NE (45%)
  • Michael Carter vs. TEN (42%)
  • Chase Edmonds in Los Angeles (42%)
  • Dalvin Cook vs. CLE (41%)
  • Melvin Gordon vs. BAL (41%)
  • Javonte Williams vs. BAL (40%)
  • Sony Michel against ARI (40%)

Some injury notes here. Dalvin Cook is currently partially screened due to his uncertain status. If he plays, you play him. If he doesn’t, you play Alexander Mattison if you have him. Cook averages 21.0 ranges and 5.0 targets when in good health. Last week Mattison took over that role with 26 carries and eight targets.

The same goes for Sony Michel and Darrell Henderson with partial projections. When Henderson played, Michel struggled to enter the field. That may have changed after his 20-run, four-target game while playing 73.0% of Los Angeles Rams’ snaps.

If Henderson is healthy, we can trust him. If you’re really in a bind, Michel’s potentially increased workload could keep him in the low-end flexible mix in such a promising game.

Keep an eye out for the status of Giovani Bernard, who led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. He played 45.1% of the team’s snaps and had 10 no-carry targets. If he’s ready to go, we should overthrow Leonard Fournette.

Bench if possible
These full-backs have a less than 40% chance of placing in the top 24.

  • Kareem Hunt at MIN (38%)
  • Devin Singletary vs HOU (37%)
  • Alexander Mattison vs. CLE (36%)
  • Cordarrelle Patterson vs. WSH (36%)
  • Kenyan Drake at LAC (34%)
  • Jamaal Williams at CHI (33%)
  • Tony Pollard vs. CAR (33%)
  • Trey Sermon vs. SEA (31%)
  • Zack Moss vs. HOU (30%)
  • Damien Harris vs. TB (29%)
  • James Conner in Los Angeles (28%)
  • JD McKissic at ATL (27%)
  • Nyheim Hines at MIA (26%)
  • Darrell Henderson vs. ARI (22%)

WIDE RECEIVER

Start with Confidence
You start these guys in a 12 team league.

  • Cooper Kupp vs. ARI (71%)
  • Tyreek Hill at PHI (70%)
  • Davante Adams vs. PIT (67%)
  • Stefon Diggs vs. HOU (65%)
  • Justin Jefferson vs. CLE (64%)
  • DeAndre Hopkins in LA (61%)
  • Amari Cooper vs. CAR (60%)
  • Calvin Ridley vs. WSH (59%)
  • DK Metcalf at SF (58%)
  • Lamb CeeDee vs CAR (57%)
  • DJ Moore at DAL (56%)
  • Ja’Marr Chase vs. JAC (56%)
  • Tyler Lockett in SF (56%)
  • Keenan Allen vs. LV (55%)
  • Deebo Samuel vs. SEA (54%)
  • Chris Godwin at NE (50%)
  • Terry McLaurin at ATL (50%)
  • Adam Thielen vs. CLE (47%)

Consider if necessary
These players are more game-dependent for Week 1 than the level above, but that’s probably where we’re looking for a lot of our WR2, WR3, and FLEX games this week.

  • Marvin Jones at CIN (44%)
  • Odell Beckham at MIN (44%)
  • Mike Williams vs. LV (44%)
  • Allen Robinson vs. DET (44%)
  • Robert Woods vs. ARI (44%)
  • Tyler Boyd vs. JAC (43%)
  • Brandin cooks at BUF (43%)
  • Mike Evans in NE (42%)
  • DeVonta Smith vs. KC (42%)
  • Courtland Sutton v. BAL (40%)
  • Chase Claypool in GB (38%)
  • Corey Davis vs. TEN (37%)
  • Jakobi Meyers vs. TB (36%)
  • DJ Chark at CIN (34%)
  • Brandon Aiyuk vs. SEA (33%)
  • Kenny Golladay at NO (32%)
  • Marquise Brown at DEN (31%)
  • Michael Pittman Jr. at MIA (31%)

Bench if possible
These players finished in WR2 or better less than 30% of the time.

  • Cole Beasley vs. HOU (29%)
  • Will Fuller vs. IND (27%)
  • Tim Patrick vs. BAL (25%)
  • Henry Ruggs at LAC (24%)
  • Darnell Mooney vs. DET (23%)
  • Jaylen Waddle vs. IND (20%)
  • Emmanuel Sanders vs. HOU (20%)
  • AJ Green in LA (19%)
  • Christian Kirk in LA (19%)
  • Rondale Moore in Los Angeles (19%)
  • Laviska Shenault at CIN (19%)
  • Robby Anderson at DAL (18%)
  • Nelson Agholor vs. VG (17%)
  • DeVante Parker vs. IND (17%)
  • Hunter Renfrow at LAC (17%)
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs PIT (16%)
  • Marquez Callaway vs. NYG (16%)
  • Mecole Hardman at PHI (15%)
  • Zach Pascal at MIA (15%)
  • Jalen Reagor vs. KC (15%)

TIGHT END

Start with Confidence
These guys are the Big Five now.

  • Travis Kelce at PHI (87%)
  • Darren Waller at LAC (82%)
  • George Kittle vs. SEA (71%)
  • Mark Andrews at DEN (60%)
  • TJ Hockenson at CHI (53%)

Consider if necessary
You will likely start these options if you don’t have a prominent tight end.

  • Noah Fant vs. BAL (47%)
  • Logan Thomas at ATL (47%)
  • Rob Gronkowski in NE (45%)
  • Kyle Pitts vs. WSH (44%)
  • Dalton Schultz vs. CAR (40%)
  • Tyler Higbee vs. IRA (39%)
  • Dallas Goedert vs. KC (33%)
  • Austin Hooper at MIN (32%)
  • Mike Gesicki vs. IND (30%)

Bench if possible
Those tight ends aren’t in the starting conversation in 12-team leagues unless you’re desperate.

  • Jared Cook vs. LV (29%)
  • Jonnu Smith vs. TB (27%)
  • Robert Tonyan vs. PIT (26%)
  • Evan Engram at NO (26%)
  • Tommy Tremble at DAL (25%)
  • Hunter Henry vs. VG (24%)
  • Zach Ertz vs. KC (24%)
  • Tyler Conklin vs. CLE (22%)
  • Cole Kmet vs. DET (22%)
  • Dawson Knox vs. HOU (21%)


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